New Jersey’s unemployment rate dropped to 4.5 percent in June, its lowest level since March 2024 and a decline of two tenths of a percentage point from May, according to preliminary estimates released by the state Department of Labor and Workforce Development. On paper, that continues a fairly steady downward trend in joblessness that has closed much of the gap with the national unemployment rate of 4.2 percent. Look one line down in the same report, though, and the picture gets considerably murkier. Total nonfarm payrolls actually fell by 300 jobs over the month, leaving the state’s total employment at 4,387,100, essentially flat rather than growing.

That combination, a falling unemployment rate alongside stagnant payroll growth, is not necessarily a contradiction, since the two figures come from different surveys and can move independently of each other, but it does complicate any simple reading of the report as unambiguously positive. May’s employment estimates were also revised downward in the same release, from an initially reported gain of 2,200 jobs to a more modest 1,400, a reminder that preliminary monthly job figures tend to get revised as more complete data comes in.

A Divided Picture Across Industries

The state’s month over month employment changes broke down unevenly across sectors. Five of New Jersey’s nine major private industry categories posted gains in June compared to May, led by professional and business services, which added 3,700 jobs, and private education and health services, which added 3,600. Construction, manufacturing, and other services each posted smaller gains of 500 jobs apiece. On the losing side, trade, transportation, and utilities shed 4,200 jobs over the month, while leisure and hospitality lost 3,700 and the information sector lost 900, with financial activities also posting a monthly decline.

That annual pattern is the more telling story buried inside the monthly noise. Over the twelve months ending in June, New Jersey added a total of 8,000 nonfarm jobs, with private sector employment up 10,100 and public sector employment down 2,100. But that modest net gain masks a lopsided reality, since private education and health services grew by 31,000 jobs over the same period, meaning virtually every other corner of the state’s economy either stagnated or actively contracted. Trade, transportation, and utilities lost 8,400 jobs over the year, manufacturing lost 4,600, leisure and hospitality lost 3,900, and construction, information, financial activities, and other services all posted losses as well.

A Steady Drumbeat of Layoffs

That underlying softness shows up clearly in the state’s WARN notice filings, which have continued piling up through the summer. New Jersey has recorded well over 9,000 announced layoffs so far this year, with pharmaceutical and life sciences companies among the most consistent filers. Novartis alone has filed multiple WARN notices at its East Hanover headquarters this year, including a 322 person reduction, part of a broader pattern of staged restructuring at the drugmaker’s New Jersey operations that has cut hundreds of positions since the spring.

Other notable filings this summer include Notions Marketing, a Michigan based creative arts wholesaler that laid off 179 remote New Jersey workers after a warehouse fire halted its operations, and the Sheraton Atlantic City Convention Center Hotel, which cut roughly 99 staff members as part of a redevelopment plan converting part of the property into senior housing. Combined cuts from Samsung, International Paper, and ADP added several hundred more layoffs to the total, contributing to what several outlets tracking the state’s WARN filings have described as one of the more active layoff years New Jersey has seen in recent memory, even as the headline unemployment rate continues to fall.

Rutgers Projects a Sluggish Two Years Ahead

Looking further out, a new economic forecast from Rutgers University’s Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy suggests the state’s growth is likely to remain subdued through 2027. The report, released by the New Jersey State Policy Lab, projects New Jersey’s economy will expand by just 0.9 percent annually in both 2026 and 2027, a full percentage point below the projected national growth rate. Employment growth is expected to slow even further, to just 0.2 percent this year before improving modestly to 0.5 percent in 2027.

Report authors Will Payne and Tarun Arasu wrote that the state’s labor market, while stabilizing, remains under real pressure, pointing specifically to tighter federal immigration enforcement and reduced in-migration as factors likely to weigh on the state’s population and labor force growth going forward. The report’s authors do expect New Jersey’s growth to eventually catch up to and slightly exceed the national pace over the medium term, but not before another year or two of comparatively sluggish performance.

The Hiring Continues Anyway

None of that slower macro picture has stopped major New Jersey employers from continuing to hire for serious, high paying roles this week, spanning everything from advanced robotics to craft beer sales.

Rounding out the week’s notable openings, craft brewery Icarus Brewing is hiring a brand representative to grow its accounts across bars, restaurants, and liquor stores throughout Northern New Jersey, a full time, salaried, on the road sales role for anyone who knows the regional beer scene. Between a robotics lab in Bergen County, a data science team inside one of the world’s largest banks, and a brewery looking to expand its footprint one bar at a time, the range of roles actively hiring right now offers a useful reminder that even a cooling labor market keeps generating real opportunity for job seekers willing to look for it.