The Philadelphia Phillies face the August 3 trade deadline knowing the organization made a colossal error in judgment that cost the club its manager, and the front office knows what caused the problem. The first order of business for manager Rob Thomson was to lead the team through the playoffs after a deep postseason run last year, and the front office did nothing while the cracks slowly formed until the club’s 9-19 start to this year ended his tenure. By the time Dave Dombrowski fired him, the damage was done to the team’s early season. Now his replacement, Don Mattingly, has just enough time to address all of the holes that have appeared in the roster during Thomson’s 51-game managerial stint, and the front office knows it has to be among the most aggressive buyers at this year’s deadline.
It says everything about the Phillies’ poor positioning in the NL East standings that Dombrowski has barely had an opportunity to stand pat after last year’s 106-win campaign. The team trails the NL East-leading Braves and finds itself right around the Wild Card area with no room for error, and the front office knows it can only afford to make one more move before the deadline to address this year’s concerns. The Phillies have shown they can contend in 2024, but they do not yet have the makeup of a true world champion, and their most recent brush with the elite competition served as a helpful wake-up call. The team lost two tough ones to the Yankees and two more to the defending NL champions, the Dodgers. Even the one win against New York didn’t appear as the harbinger of good things to come, as the Phillies’ bullpen blew a 1-0 lead in the ninth inning by allowing four runs. It is not a unique occurrence this season, as the relievers have consistently failed to hold leads, and now nobody expects the team to make a meaningful playoff run without addressing the rotation.
Philadelphia’s rotation is still reasonably strong, as Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez, and Jesus Luzardo all remain top-of-the-rotation arms, but the production drops-off drastically at fourth starter. Aaron Nola has been especially disappointing, throwing up a 5.82 ERA this year, and nobody expected much from rookie Andrew Painter before he was outright released to Triple-A. The results show it all; when a starter other than the trio of starters named above takes the hill, the Phillies are 14-32, and that is not a record the club can improve upon at the deadline.
It is what has linked the Phillies to Tarik Skubal, the Blue Jays’ flame-throwing right-hander whose entire season has been derailed by a minor elbow procedure. He has bounced back quickly and has been absolutely dominant since his return, and Skubal fits the need for a proven postseason-ready starter. It is not like his acquisition would come cheap, as Toronto’s skid has cooled just slightly, and the price could be prohibitively high for Philadelphia. Skubal is the clear top prize for the club and would fill the need at fifth starter for most of the season and be a valuable asset in the postseason, but teams with similar needs could also try to acquire him.
On the other hand, the Phillies have options if Skubal’s price tag proves too high or if the Tigers refuse to deal. Kevin Gausman fits the need for a frontline starter, and he can carry a heavy workload for a team needing innings in the postseason. He is on a fielding 110 million dollar contract in his final season with the Blue Jays, and he offers another reliable option. The team could look for something smaller in his place, as well, if the price proves too steep. Both Robbie Ray and Brady Singer appear as more affordable options, though the latter would be a middle innings arm who could eat up 6-7 innings per game at a discount.
The bullpen presents another area of concern for the Phillies, with its current construction featuring a strong combination of closer Domingo Acevedo in the eighth inning and high-octane fireman Jhoan Duran in the ninth. However, the middle of the bullpen lacks any arms strong enough to eat up the sixth or seventh innings against the best offenses, and Philadelphia has no depth in case of an emergency. The key acquisition in the offseason, Brad Keller, went on IRR with a season-ending UCL tear, and lefty specialist Jose Alvarado has not been anywhere near the top of his game all season.
The result of these failures has been a leaky middle innings that has forced Mattingly to use his best arms in far too many high-leverage situations. Perhaps the best fit for the Phillies would be a reunion with another former member of the club, Jeff Hoffman. He finds himself with the Blue Jays after his last tenure with the Phillies ended prematurely, but Hoffman could step right back in the seventh or eighth inning role without missing a beat. There are other options in the league, as well, including Mason Miller, a closer-type reliever the San Diego Padres appear to have no intention of using in the postseason. He can be had for a package of the Phillies’ top prospects, as he has been absolutely dominant this year and will provide a ton of value for a team with championship aspirations. A more affordable option would be Camilo Doval, who has been lights-out for most of the year, but his leash has been cut short in several high-leverage games. He would provide a significant upgrade in the bullpen without demanding as many top prospects in return.
Finally, the offense has a serious shortage of production from right field, and although Brandon Marsh has done his part, the rest of the outfield has mostly been a group of young players who have not produced consistently against left-handed pitching. Dombrowski has a history of chasing impact bats at the deadline, and names like Daulton Varsho, Heliot Ramos, and Byron Buxton could all factor into the offense’s improvement against lefties. It is unlikely the Phillies will be able to upgrade their corner defense, as they already have plenty of positional needs, but a move for one of these impact batters would certainly help the offense’s chances against a deep postseason field. A third base upgrade has also surfaced in recent days, but it would appear to be a distant third priority to the other needs across the roster.
Most of the available impact players to the Phillies come from just a few teams, and it is clear who the hot sellers are at this year’s trade deadline. The Angels, Giants, and Tigers figure to be the teams shopping at the deadline, and with a new front office in Anaheim that has made it clear the Angels have no intention of rebuilding, Reid Detmers, Jose Soriano, Zach Neto, and CJ Abrams from Washington all enter the conversation as impact players available in the coming days. Luis Arraez in San Francisco figures to be the most attractive bat available on the short-term market, as the soon-to-be free agent has put together a fantastic season with the Giants after years of disappointment in Milwaukee.
With just one week left before the deadline, Philadelphia sports radio remains up in arms regarding just how far Dombrowski will go to improve the team. The majority want the front office to keep its best prospects in-house and only upgrade the team with the players the Phillies are likely to lose at the end of the season anyway. There are others, however, who believe the Phillies have shown themselves to be a championship contender, and the only way the front office could have made a bigger mistake this year was to do nothing at all during the offseason.
