Highest risk along and southeast of the I-95 corridor between 5 and 7 PM
Today: Storms Build This Afternoon, Clear Out Tonight
Highest risk along and southeast of the I-95 corridor between 5 and 7 PM
New Jersey is running warm and sticky today, with a real feel near 89 degrees thanks to humidity sitting at 74 percent under light southeast winds. Scattered thunderstorms are already moving through parts of the state, and that activity is expected to intensify late this afternoon into the early evening, with rain chances jumping to 65 percent between 5 and 7 PM, especially along and southeast of the I-95 corridor. Once the sun goes down, the storms clear out entirely, giving way to patchy overnight fog and a comfortable low near 67 degrees.
7-Day Outlook
A dry, sunny break Wednesday gives way to a wetter system Thursday
Wednesday brings the week’s clear high point, a genuinely beautiful, dry stretch with plenty of sunshine and a high near 87. That break is short lived, though, as a more organized system moves in Thursday, pushing rain and storm chances up to 85 percent statewide. Behind that system, the weekend trends cooler and considerably more comfortable, with Saturday looking like the better of the two weekend days for outdoor plans before a mostly clear, sunny Monday closes out the stretch.
The Bigger Picture This Week
Steady southwest flow keeps it muggy, not dangerous
The broader pattern driving this week’s forecast traces back to steady southwest flow aloft, tied to a hot ridge positioned upstream. Climatologically, New Jersey is losing its ability to push temperatures into truly excessive or dangerous territory this late in August, but that same southwest flow still drags in swampy, tropical air, meaning 80 to 85 degree afternoons will keep feeling closer to 90 to 95 with the humidity factored in. Expect that pattern to repeat through most of the week, warm rather than outright hot, consistently humid, with a chance of passing showers and thunderstorms nearly every afternoon. An earlier hope for a humidity break arriving by Friday has faded from the latest model guidance, meaning residents should plan for a generally unsettled, muggy stretch straight through the weekend rather than a clean, prolonged dry spell.
In the tropics, Invest 94L has weakened back down to a disturbance and is no longer expected to threaten the East Coast or Bermuda with any organized system, a welcome bit of quiet news for a period of the Atlantic hurricane season that typically starts ramping up considerably by early September.
A small craft exercise caution advisory is in effect for coastal waters as thunderstorm activity builds this afternoon. East-southeast winds run 10 to 15 knots, shifting south-southeast by evening, with seas of 3 to 4 feet in open coastal waters and a calmer 1 to 2 feet inside Barnegat Bay and Delaware Bay. Visibility holds at 5 to 10 miles but can drop below 1 mile inside any sudden downpour or storm cell. The main window for lightning and heavy rain along the beaches runs from 5 to 8 PM, with cells capable of producing wind gusts up to 35 knots and frequent cloud to water lightning before clearing out late tonight. Boaters should keep a close eye on radar through the evening.
