New Jersey is bracing for a major weather event this Columbus Day weekend as a powerful nor’easter tracks up the East Coast, threatening to deliver heavy rain, strong winds, and significant coastal flooding from Sunday, October 12 through Monday, October 13. Meteorologists warn that this storm could be the most severe coastal system to hit the Garden State since Superstorm Sandy in 2012, with the potential for widespread flooding, power outages, and dangerous surf conditions along the Jersey Shore.

The system, fueled by two merging low-pressure areas—one from the Great Lakes and another forming near Florida—is expected to intensify rapidly as it moves north. Once the two systems combine, the storm will stall near the Mid-Atlantic coast, locking New Jersey under a prolonged period of wind-driven rain, high tides, and pounding surf.

The National Weather Service has issued Coastal Flood Watches for nearly every shoreline county in New Jersey, including areas along the Delaware Bay. Forecasters predict a storm surge of two to four feet, enough to cause moderate to major tidal flooding, particularly during high tide cycles from Sunday night into Monday evening. Low-lying areas may see roads submerged and impassable, and emergency management officials are warning of the possibility of evacuations in the hardest-hit coastal towns.

Wind is also expected to be a major concern. High Wind Watches are in effect for the entire coastline, with gusts potentially reaching 60 miles per hour. Inland communities along the I-95 corridor could experience gusts between 30 and 50 miles per hour, strong enough to knock down trees, damage structures, and cause widespread power outages. With saturated ground and falling leaves, even moderate gusts could lead to downed branches and debris hazards on roadways.

Heavy rainfall will add another layer of concern. Although the storm’s rain will help alleviate ongoing drought conditions, the volume and intensity could quickly overwhelm drainage systems, especially when combined with coastal surge. Most of the state can expect 1 to 3 inches of rain, but areas near the shore could exceed 3 inches or more, particularly if the storm stalls offshore as expected. The heaviest rain will likely fall from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon, with intermittent lulls possible between intense downpours.

The storm’s impact won’t stop at the coastline. Beach erosion and dune breaches are expected along much of the Jersey Shore, as large waves and relentless surf batter the beaches throughout the weekend. Beachfront communities are being urged to secure outdoor furniture, signage, and decorations ahead of time.

As the storm intensifies, residents are encouraged to take immediate precautions. Those living in flood-prone or low-lying areas should move vehicles and valuables to higher ground, while homeowners should tie down loose outdoor items to prevent them from becoming airborne hazards. Power outages are likely, so it’s wise to charge electronic devices, prepare flashlights, and have backup batteries or generators ready.

Meteorologists anticipate that conditions will begin deteriorating late Saturday as clouds thicken and winds shift onshore. Rain will start off light and scattered but will become heavy and widespread overnight. By Sunday morning, the nor’easter will be in full force, bringing its strongest winds and heaviest rainfall through Monday afternoon before slowly tapering off.

Temperatures will also take a dip, with inland areas falling into the 30s and 40s overnight early in the weekend, adding a chill to already harsh conditions. Coastal residents should also be mindful of high tides between Sunday night and Monday night, which are expected to coincide with the storm’s peak intensity.

New Jersey emergency officials urge residents to monitor local weather forecasts and heed any evacuation orders if issued. Although the storm’s exact track could still shift slightly, the potential for major coastal flooding, high surf, and damaging winds remains high across the state.

For ongoing coverage, safety tips, and real-time updates on the nor’easter’s impact across the Garden State, visit Explore New Jersey’s Weather Report section.

As this powerful October storm bears down on New Jersey, the next few days will test the state’s coastal resilience and readiness. From the boardwalks of Cape May to the bays of Monmouth County, residents are being reminded that preparation today could make all the difference when the storm reaches its peak.

New Jersey is bracing for its first significant nor’easter of the season, set to arrive late this weekend and linger into early next week. While October often brings unpredictable coastal weather, this incoming system is shaping up to be one of the more impactful events in recent memory—particularly for communities along the shore.

The storm is expected to develop over the weekend and bring a combination of persistent rainfall, gusty winds, and coastal flooding that could reach major flood stages in certain areas. For those living near the coast or in flood-prone zones, preparation will be key.

A Quick Look at the Calm Before the Storm

The recent cold front that pushed through New Jersey has swept away the unseasonably warm and muggy air, leaving behind crisp autumn conditions. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the 40s across much of the state, with coastal areas staying slightly milder.

Thursday and Friday will bring the coolest weather of the fall so far, with daytime highs only reaching the low to mid-60s. Nighttime temperatures could dip low enough in parts of North Jersey—especially along and north of I-78 and I-287—for frost or even a light freeze. Expect clear skies and dry conditions both days.

Saturday brings a slight warm-up as winds shift from the ocean, bumping temperatures back up to around 70 degrees for many areas. But those mild temps will come with increasing cloud cover and a steady onshore breeze, setting the stage for the nor’easter to take hold.

Timeline of the Storm

The storm is forecast to arrive between late Saturday night and early Sunday morning, moving in from the south. Rain will start gradually and intensify through Sunday as onshore winds strengthen. Monday is expected to be the peak of the storm’s impact, with heavy rain, powerful wind gusts, and widespread flooding in low-lying coastal areas.

Conditions may not begin to noticeably improve until sometime Tuesday, depending on how long the storm lingers. If it stalls—as some models suggest—it could extend its impact well into the day.

For daily updates as the system approaches, you can track developments and local conditions by visiting the Explore New Jersey Weather Report section.

What to Expect: Rain, Wind, and Flooding

While rainfall totals will vary across the state, most areas can expect at least 0.5 to 1 inch of rain. South and Central Jersey, especially near the coast, could see 1 to 3 inches, depending on the storm’s track. Though the rain is welcome in drought-affected regions, its slow and steady arrival should allow most inland areas to manage the runoff.

Winds will be a more serious concern. Inland areas of North Jersey could experience sustained winds of 20–30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph, while coastal communities could see sustained winds between 25–40 mph with gusts as high as 60+ mph. These conditions are strong enough to bring down tree limbs, damage property, and cause scattered power outages.

Coastal flooding will likely be the biggest hazard. The persistent onshore flow—driven by a strong high-pressure system to the north and the storm’s cyclonic wind pattern—will create dangerous conditions along oceanfront areas, bays, and back creeks. Water levels may exceed moderate flood stages and could reach major flood levels in vulnerable spots.

Tides will also play a role, though there’s a bit of good news there. The moon is now past its full phase and currently waning, which should help ease the highest potential storm tides.

Preparedness Is Key

If you live in a coastal or flood-prone area—from the Jersey Shore to the Delaware Bay—now is the time to prepare. Charge devices, check backup power sources, secure outdoor furniture, and avoid driving through flooded roadways. Be especially cautious around areas with poor drainage, as even moderate rain can lead to street flooding during prolonged onshore flow.

If evacuation orders are issued by local officials, follow them promptly. For those staying put, stock up on essentials, keep emergency supplies handy, and plan for possible power disruptions. It’s a great weekend for comfort food, classic board games, and staying indoors.

Looking Ahead

The bigger picture shows a pattern that could usher in a more active coastal storm season this fall. While this nor’easter isn’t expected to break any records, it does serve as a seasonal wake-up call. After several quiet years, many New Jersey residents may be underestimating just how raw and disruptive these storms can be.

As we move deeper into October and the colder months approach, it’s important to stay informed and connected to reliable weather updates—not just for safety, but for peace of mind.

Keep following Explore New Jersey Weather Reports for updates, forecasts, and coverage throughout the storm.

After a few unseasonably warm days across New Jersey, residents should prepare for a shift in the weather pattern as rain moves into the region tonight. Beginning between 8:00 and 10:00 p.m., precipitation is expected to fall primarily overnight and taper off by early Wednesday afternoon, though some areas could see the rain end closer to late morning. This system is largely driven by the interaction of high pressure over Bermuda and another approaching high pressure over the Great Lakes, creating favorable conditions for a widespread rain event. While the main focus is rain, there remains a slight chance for a few isolated, non-severe thunderstorms during the night.

Most locations in New Jersey are likely to receive at least a quarter-inch of rain by Wednesday afternoon, with localized pockets potentially seeing between a half-inch and an inch. As the rain moves out Wednesday afternoon into evening, a cold front will sweep through the state, bringing gusty northwesterly winds that will linger into the night. These breezes will be a harbinger of the cold air mass moving in for the latter half of the week, setting the stage for the chilliest conditions of early fall. Thursday and Friday are expected to be noticeably cooler, with daytime highs dropping and crisp autumn air taking hold. Saturday should bring a slight moderation in temperatures, and conditions are likely to remain dry.

Looking ahead, meteorologists are monitoring the potential development of a coastal low that could impact New Jersey between Sunday and Tuesday. Current projections suggest this system may stall or retrograde slightly along the coast before moving out to sea. If it materializes as expected, the coastal storm could bring a moderate nor’easter, with a central pressure forecasted between 992 and 996 millibars. While not expected to be a major storm, its extended duration could make for noticeable impacts, including sustained rainfall, stronger winds, elevated surf, and potential beach erosion. This type of storm would provide much-needed rainfall for the region but could also create unsafe conditions along the shoreline.

In simpler terms, residents should expect rain to begin by 10:00 p.m. tonight across much of New Jersey, continuing overnight and likely ending by early Wednesday afternoon. Most areas will see at least a quarter-inch of rain, with heavier amounts possible in isolated spots. Colder northwesterly winds will follow Wednesday evening, leading to the coolest temperatures seen so far this fall through Thursday and Friday. A coastal storm is increasingly likely Sunday into Tuesday, bringing the possibility of a nor’easter with rain, wind, and rough surf that will affect beaches and coastal areas.

For ongoing updates on weather events, rainfall forecasts, and coastal storm tracking in New Jersey, visit Explore New Jersey’s Weather Report section to stay informed on the latest developments and prepare for the week ahead.