Explore New Jersey

New Jersey, a state at the crossroads of national politics and daily commutes, often presents a fascinating picture of public opinion. A recent poll from Fairleigh Dickinson University (FDU) sheds light on how Garden State voters view both the latest federal budget and the performance of their own state’s public transit system, NJ Transit. The findings offer a nuanced look at what resonates with residents, and what still needs improvement.

The Federal Budget: SALT Deduction’s Limited Appeal

The recently passed federal budget bill, a complex piece of legislation with various provisions, has landed with a mixed reception in New Jersey. One of its most significant features for high-tax states like ours was a temporary increase in the federal deduction for State and Local Taxes (SALT). This deduction, which impacts real estate decisions across New Jersey (https://explorenewjersey.org/category/real-estate/) and the wallets of many homeowners, saw its cap jump from $10,000 this year to $40,000 next year, with slight increases thereafter until it reverts in 2030. For New Jersey’s congressional delegation, securing this increase has been a long-standing goal.

However, according to the FDU Poll, even this highly anticipated SALT deduction increase hasn’t significantly swayed overall public opinion on the budget bill. Only 27% of likely voters in New Jersey approve of the bill, while a substantial 61% disapprove. This sentiment largely aligns with national trends.

Delving into the specifics, the poll found clear partisan divides. Democrats in New Jersey are overwhelmingly opposed, with 94% disapproving of the budget. Independents also largely disapprove, at 64%. Republicans, on the other hand, show support, with 62% approving. This indicates that while the SALT deduction is a bipartisan concern in New Jersey, its inclusion in a broader budget bill with other provisions, such as tax cuts for wealthier Americans and cuts to healthcare spending, likely drives the overall disapproval among most voters.

Interestingly, when voters were specifically reminded that the bill included the temporary SALT deduction increase, support among independents saw a modest bump, rising from 14% to 22%. While this eight-point increase offers some positive news for Republican incumbents who voted for the bill, it’s tempered by the fact that 60% of independents still expressed opposition. Homeowners, too, showed a slight increase in support when the SALT deduction was mentioned, with approval rising from 30% to 35%. This suggests that while the tax relief is appreciated by some, it’s not enough to overshadow other concerns about the budget’s overall direction for many New Jerseyans.

NJ Transit: A Grade of “C” and Room for Growth

Beyond the intricacies of federal budgets, the poll also gauged how New Jersey residents feel about their daily commute, specifically the performance of NJ Transit. Voters were asked to assign a letter grade to the public transit agency, and the results indicate a general sense of “passing, but could do better.”

The most common grade awarded to NJ Transit was a “C,” narrowly surpassing “B.” Only 6% of voters gave NJ Transit an “A,” indicating strong approval, while a similar 8% assigned a failing grade of “F.” What’s particularly noteworthy is the striking lack of partisan difference in these assessments. Republicans and Democrats largely gave the transit agency similar scores, suggesting that the experience of using public transportation transcends political affiliation.

Even across different regions of the state, where NJ Transit’s services can vary greatly (for instance, the dense network in the northeast compared to coastal counties), the grades remained fairly consistent. In the northeast, 32% of voters gave NJ Transit an “A” or “B,” while 14% assigned a “D” or “F.” Coastal counties saw similar figures, with 34% awarding an “A” or “B,” and 22% giving a “D” or “F.”

As Governor Murphy’s pledge to “fix” NJ Transit enters its sixth year, the poll results suggest that while progress may have been made, there’s still considerable room for improvement in the eyes of the riding public. The shared experience of commuters across the state highlights a common desire for more efficient, reliable, and highly-rated public transportation.

This FDU Poll, based on a sample of 806 likely voters in New Jersey, contacted between July 17 and July 23, 2025, provides valuable insights into the current political and practical concerns of the state’s residents. With a simple sampling error of +/- 3.4 percentage points (and +/- 3.9 percentage points including design effects), these findings offer a reliable snapshot of public sentiment as New Jersey continues to navigate its complex challenges.

Methodology

The FDU Poll is a proud member of the AAPOR Transparency Initiative and is devoted to ensuring that our results are presented in such a way that anyone can quickly and easily get all of the information that they may need to evaluate the validity of our surveys. We believe that transparency is the key to building trust in the work of high-quality public opinion research, and necessary to push our industry forward.

The survey was conducted between July 17 and 23, 2025, using a voter list of registered voters in New Jersey carried out by Braun Research of Princeton, New Jersey. Contact attempts were limited to registered voters who had voted in one or both of the last two NJ gubernatorial elections or were newly registered since the last NJ gubernatorial election. These respondents were considered likely voters if they met these criteria and said that they intended to vote in November’s gubernatorial election.

Respondents were contacted via either live caller telephone interviews, or text-to-web surveys sent to cellular phones, resulting in an overall sample of 806 registered voters in the state. Surveys were carried out via live caller telephone interviews to landlines (282) and cellphones (82) and the remainder (442) were done on a web platform via weblinks sent via SMS to cell phones. Surveys were conducted only in English.

The data were weighted to be representative of the population of registered voters in New Jersey. The weights used, like all weights, balance the demographic characteristics of the sample to match known population parameters. The weighted results used here are balanced to match parameters for sex, age, education and race/ethnicity.

SPSSINC RAKE, an SPSS extension module that simultaneously balances the distributions of all variables using the GENLOG procedure, was used to produce final weights. Weights were trimmed to prevent individual interviews from having too much influence on the final results. The use of these weights in statistical analysis helps to ensure that the demographic characteristics of the sample approximate the demographic characteristics of the target population. The size of these weights is used to construct the measure of design effects, which indicate the extent to which the reported results are being driven by the weights applied to the data, rather than found in the data itself. Simply put, these design effects tell us how many additional respondents would have been needed to get the weighted number of respondents across weighted categories: larger design effects indicate greater levels of under-representation in the data. In this case, calculated design effects are approximately 1.2, largely driven by the weights used on the race/ethnicity variable.

All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for 806 registered voters is +/-3.4 percentage points, at a 95 percent confidence interval. Including the design effects, the margin of error would be +/-3.9 percentage points, though the figure not including them is much more commonly reported.

This error calculation does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, differences in translated forms, or context effects. While such errors are known to exist, they are often unquantifiable within a particular survey, and all efforts, such as randomization and extensive pre-testing of items, have been used to minimize them.

Weighted Telephone Sample Characteristics

806 Likely Voters in New Jersey

Figures do not include individuals who declined to answer demographic items.

Man                                 47%                 N = 375
Woman                             51%                 N = 414
Some Other Way           1%                  N = 6

18-30                           16%                N = 128
31-44                           22%                 N = 179
45-64                           32%                 N = 262
65+                               30%                 N = 237

White                                            68%                N = 550
Black                                               12%                N = 95
Hispanic/Latino/a                                      12%                N = 96
Asian                                        3%                  N = 25
MENA                                       2%                  N = 12
Other/Multi-racial                                     3%                  N = 27

No college degree                       57%                N = 458
College degree or more              42%                N = 334

Democrat (including leaners)     45%                N = 324
Independent (no lean)                 16%                N = 115
Republican (including leaners)   38%                N = 272

Question Wording and Order

Now, we’d like to ask you a few questions about the upcoming Gubernatorial Election

First off, we’d like to ask you about this Fall’s race for governor.

NJ1. In this November’s gubernatorial election, do you think you will vote for the Democrat Mikie Sherrill, the Republican Jack Ciattarelli, or do you think you’ll not vote? [Shuffle order of Sherrill and Ciattarelli in question]

1. Definitely vote for Democrat Mikie Sherrill
2. Probably vote for Sherrill
3. Definitely vote for Republican Jack Ciattarelli
4. Probably vote for Republican Jack Ciattarelli
5. Probably won’t vote
6. Not sure [Vol]
7. Vote for Someone else [Vol]
8. [DK/REF]

Respondents are randomly assigned (50/50) to get either:

NJ1 -> Local Items -> NJ2 -> National Items or

NJ1 -> National Items -> NJ2 -> Local Items

Local Items

[Intervening items held for later release]

L7. If you were to give NJ Transit a letter grade, like students get in school, what grade would you give NJ Transit? An A, a B, a C, a D or an F?

1. A
2. B
3. C
4. D
5. F
6. Not Sure [VOL]
7. DK/Ref [VOL]

[Intervening items held for later release]

National Items

Before getting back to New Jersey issues, we’d like to ask a few questions about national politics.

N1. Do you approve, or disapprove, of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?

1. Approve
2. Disapprove
3. Not Sure [Vol]
4. DK/Ref [vol]

[Randomly assign to N2A or N2B]

N2A. Earlier this month, President Trump signed a budget bill. The bill cuts spending on medical care and gives substantial tax breaks to wealthier Americans among other things. On the whole, do you support  or oppose this bill?

1. Support
2. Oppose
3. Not Sure [Vol]
4. DK/Ref [vol]

N2B. Earlier this month, President Trump signed a budget bill. The bill cuts spending on medical care and gives substantial tax breaks to wealthier Americans among other things, like temporarily increasing how much of their property taxes homeowners can deduct from their taxes. On the whole, do you support  or oppose this bill?

1. Support
2. Oppose
3. Not Sure [Vol]
4. DK/Ref [vol]

N3. When it comes to deporting immigrants who are living in the U.S. illegally, would you say the Trump administration is doing…

1. Too much
2. Too Little
3. About the right amount

N4. Regardless of your own immigration or citizenship status, how much, if at all, do you  worry that you, a family member, or a close friend could be deported?

1. A Lot
2. Some
3. Not Much
4. Not at All

NJ2. Just to confirm, in this November’s gubernatorial election, do you think you will vote for the Democrat Mikie Sherrill, the Republican Jack Ciattarelli, or do you think you’ll not vote? [Shuffle order of Sherrill and Ciattarelli in question]

1. Definitely vote for Democrat Mikie Sherrill
2. Probably vote for Sherrill
3. Definitely vote for Republican Jack Ciattarelli
4. Probably vote for Republican Jack Ciattarelli
5. Probably won’t vote
6. Not sure [Vol]
7. Vote for Someone else [Vol]
8. [DK/REF]

Demographics

Just a few more questions, for statistical purposes

D1. In politics today, do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, Independent, or something else?

1. Democrat
2. Republican
3. Independent  [ASK D1A]
4. Something Else/Other
5. DK/Ref [vol]

D1A. [Ask only if D1 is 3] Which way do you lean?

1. Democrat
2. Republican
3. Independent
4. Something Else/Other
5. DK/Ref [vol]

D1B. In addition, which of the following terms would you use to describe your political views? You can choose as many as you like. [Shuffle Order]

1. Liberal
2. Moderate
3. Conservative
4. Socialist
5. Progressive
6. Libertarian
7. Make America Great Again or MAGA
8. Nationalist

D2A. To ensure we are reaching people of all ages, would you please tell me your age?

____    (ENTER AGE: 98=98+, 99 = REFUSED)[IF Don’t Know/REFUSED IN QD1, ASK:]

D2B.  Would you be willing to tell us whether it’s between…?

1. Under 30
2. 31 to 44
3. 45 to 64
4. 65 or over
5. [Refused]

D6. Do you own or rent your current residence?

1. Own [or have a mortgage]
2. Rent
3. Something else [vol]
4. DK/REF [vol]

D3. What was the last grade in school you completed? [CODE TO LIST]

1. Did not complete High School
2. High School Diploma or equivalent
3. Vocational or Trade School
4. Some college, but no degree
5. Associates, or other 2 year degree
6. Bachelor’s Degree
7. Graduate work, such as Law, MBA, Medical School, or similar
8. Refused (VOL)

D4. How would you describe your sex? Do you describe yourself as …

1. A Man
2. A Woman
3. Some other way
4. [DK/REF]

D5. How would you describe your racial and ethnic background? You can pick as many as you’d like.

1. White
2. Black
3. Asian
4. Hispanic/Latino/a/Spanish
5. Middle Eastern or North African (MENA)
6. Other or Multi-Racial
7. [Dk/Ref]

Release Tables