With the primary contests now firmly in the rearview mirror, the quest for New Jersey’s highest office has entered a critical phase, and early indicators suggest a tightly contested battle. The latest FDU Poll reveals a fascinating snapshot of the gubernatorial race, showing Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill currently holding an eight-point lead over her Republican counterpart, Jack Ciattarelli, with 45 percent to 37 percent among likely voters. A significant 16 percent of the electorate remains undecided, poised to play a decisive role in what promises to be a gripping election season.
While the general election is still some months away, both major parties are largely coalescing behind their chosen champions. An impressive 87 percent of Democrats surveyed express their intent to vote for Sherrill, demonstrating strong party unity. On the Republican side, Ciattarelli commands the support of 86 percent of his party, though a slightly larger proportion—23 percent—describe their vote as “probable” rather than “definite,” compared to 15 percent among Democrats.
As Professor Dan Cassino, Executive Director of the FDU Poll, keenly observes, partisan loyalty remains a powerful force in New Jersey politics. “Unless something goes horribly awry, partisans are going to vote for their party’s candidate,” Cassino notes. He emphasizes the challenge facing Ciattarelli: “While Republicans have been narrowing the gap, there are still more Democrats than Republicans in the state, and Ciattarelli needs to start pulling in more independents and Democrats if he wants to win.” This underscores the strategic importance of capturing the uncommitted middle ground.
The Framing Factor: Local vs. National Narratives
A unique aspect of this FDU Poll was an embedded experiment designed to gauge how the framing of the election—whether around local or national issues—influences voter preference. Participants were first asked about their gubernatorial choice, then presented with questions either on local concerns like energy, flooding, and NJ Transit, or on national topics such as the current presidential administration and immigration. After this, their gubernatorial preference was re-polled, all without explicit mention of the candidates’ stances or the election itself.
The findings were revealing, particularly concerning independent voters. While partisan voters largely held firm, framing the discussion around local issues significantly boosted Ciattarelli’s support among independents by 7 percentage points, primarily by swaying previously undecided voters into his column. Conversely, focusing on national issues led to a 4-point decrease in Ciattarelli’s support among independents, with many shifting back into the “not sure” category. Interestingly, discussing national issues did appear to solidify support for Ciattarelli among Republicans, moving 3 percent from “probable” to “definite” supporters. Sherrill’s support remained largely unaffected by either framing.
Professor Cassino highlights the strategic implications of these findings. “There’s a reason why Ciattarelli is focusing so much on local issues, and trying not to talk about President Trump,” he explains. “The more nationalized this race is, the worse Ciattarelli does overall, even as it helps him a bit among Republicans.” This delicate balance is crucial for Ciattarelli, who needs to energize his base without alienating the broader electorate.
Navigating the National Political Landscape
The dynamics of national politics, particularly the standing of the current US President, cast a significant shadow over the New Jersey race. While 81 percent of New Jersey likely voters who approve of the President’s job performance intend to support Ciattarelli, a notable 13 percent remain undecided, and 4 percent even express support for Sherrill. For Sherrill, who enjoys the backing of 77 percent of voters disapproving of the President’s performance, the path is clearer. Five percent of those disapproving of the President’s performance still lean towards Ciattarelli, suggesting a nuanced voter landscape.
Cassino aptly summarizes the tightrope Ciattarelli must walk: “Ciattarelli is walking a fine line with Trump: he needs to consolidate Trump supporters, but do so without making the race too national, or turning off voters who don’t like what’s happening in Washington.” For Sherrill, the strategy is simpler: “For Sherrill, on the other hand, there’s no downside to bashing Trump as much as she likes.”
Demographic Divides and the Path to Victory
The poll also sheds light on the demographic contours of the race. Among white voters, the contest is virtually a tie, with Sherrill at 43 percent and Ciattarelli at 42 percent. However, Sherrill commands a substantial lead among Black voters, securing 58 percent of their support compared to Ciattarelli’s 20 percent. Among Hispanic or Latino/a voters, Sherrill leads 41 percent to 27 percent, though a significant 27 percent in this demographic remain undecided, indicating a crucial segment still up for grabs.
Age also plays a role in voter preference. Sherrill holds a significant lead among voters 30 and under, with 46 percent to Ciattarelli’s 24 percent. The race tightens considerably among middle-aged voters (45 to 64), where the candidates are essentially tied at 41 percent for Sherrill and 40 percent for Ciattarelli. For the crucial demographic of voters 65 and older, who typically represent a highly reliable voting bloc, Sherrill maintains a narrower but still notable seven-point advantage, 46 percent to 39 percent.
Ciattarelli Pushes for Extensive Debate Schedule
As the race for New Jersey’s top executive office intensifies, Republican gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli, alongside his running mate Morris County Sheriff Jim Gannon, has laid down a gauntlet, formally requesting at least four debates against Democratic opponent Mikie Sherrill. This bold move, communicated to the New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission (NJ ELEC) this past Monday, signals a clear strategic push to maximize public exposure and direct engagement with voters.
The call for multiple debates is a classic campaign tactic, aiming to provide extensive opportunities for candidates to articulate their visions, challenge their opponent’s platforms, and ultimately sway undecided voters. In a state as diverse as New Jersey, with its varied regional concerns and demographic complexities, live debates offer a crucial forum for direct comparison, unscripted moments, and the chance for candidates to showcase their grasp of the issues.
Historically, New Jersey gubernatorial elections typically feature a limited number of debates. Under state law, publicly financed general election candidates are mandated to participate in three debates: two for the gubernatorial hopefuls themselves and one specifically for their lieutenant gubernatorial running mates. Ciattarelli’s proactive request for at least four suggests a desire to exceed these minimum requirements, perhaps sensing an advantage in head-to-head confrontations or aiming to capitalize on the visibility that such events generate.
The Ciattarelli-Gannon campaign’s emphasis on numerous debates highlights a broader strategy to ensure their message resonates across the Garden State. Debates serve as pivotal moments, allowing voters to scrutinize candidates’ policy positions on critical issues such as the economy, education, taxes, and infrastructure. They also provide a platform for candidates to demonstrate their leadership qualities, temperament, and ability to connect with everyday New Jerseyans.
For the public, the prospect of an extended debate schedule is an exciting one. It offers more opportunities to hear directly from the candidates on the challenges facing New Jersey and their proposed solutions. These forums are invaluable for citizens to make informed decisions ahead of the general election, fostering a deeper understanding of where each candidate stands.
The decision now rests, in part, with the NJ ELEC and the debate sponsors to determine the final number and format of these crucial encounters. As the campaign unfolds, the exchange of ideas and the clash of policy proposals on the debate stage will undoubtedly shape public opinion and set the tone for the final stretch of this high-stakes contest. The coming weeks will reveal how many of these proposed debates come to fruition, but one thing is certain: the conversation about New Jersey’s future is just getting started. For the latest on the political maneuvers and developments shaping our state, keep an eye on our Explore New Jersey Politics section.
Weighted Telephone Sample Characteristics
806 Likely Voters in New Jersey
Figures do not include individuals who declined to answer demographic items.
Man 47% N = 375
Woman 51% N = 414
Some Other Way 1% N = 6
18-30 16% N = 128
31-44 22% N = 179
45-64 32% N = 262
65+ 30% N = 237
White 68% N = 550
Black 12% N = 95
Hispanic/Latino/a 12% N = 96
Asian 3% N = 25
MENA 2% N = 12
Other/Multi-racial 3% N = 27
No college degree 57% N = 458
College degree or more 42% N = 334
Democrat (including leaners) 45% N = 324
Independent (no lean) 16% N = 115
Republican (including leaners) 38% N = 272
Question Wording and Order[Earlier questions held for later release]
Now, we’d like to ask you a few questions about the upcoming Gubernatorial Election
First off, we’d like to ask you about this Fall’s race for governor.
NJ1. In this November’s gubernatorial election, do you think you will vote for the Democrat Mikie Sherrill, the Republican Jack Ciattarelli, or do you think you’ll not vote? [Shuffle order of Sherrill and Ciattarelli in question]
- Definitely vote for Democrat Mikie Sherrill
- Probably vote for Sherrill
- Definitely vote for Republican Jack Ciattarelli
- Probably vote for Republican Jack Ciattarelli
- Probably won’t vote
- Not sure [Vol]
- Vote for Someone else [Vol]
- [DK/REF]
Respondents are randomly assigned (50/50) to get either:
NJ1 -> Local Items -> NJ2 -> National Items or
NJ1 -> National Items -> NJ2 -> Local Items
[Intervening items held for later release]
NJ2. Just to confirm, in this November’s gubernatorial election, do you think you will vote for the Democrat Mikie Sherrill, the Republican Jack Ciattarelli, or do you think you’ll not vote? [Shuffle order of Sherrill and Ciattarelli in question]
- Definitely vote for Democrat Mikie Sherrill
- Probably vote for Sherrill
- Definitely vote for Republican Jack Ciattarelli
- Probably vote for Republican Jack Ciattarelli
- Probably won’t vote
- Not sure [Vol]
- Vote for Someone else [Vol]
- [DK/REF]
Release Tables
| In this November’s gubernatorial election, do you think you will vote for the Democrat Mikie Sherrill, the Republican Jack Ciattarelli, someone else, or do you not plan to vote? | ||||
| All | Dem | Indp | Rep | |
| Definitely vote for Sherrill | 35% | 72% | 21% | 2% |
| Probably vote for Sherrill | 10% | 15% | 9% | 3% |
| Total Sherrill | 45% | 87% | 30% | 5% |
| Probably vote for Ciattarelli | 11% | 1% | 10% | 23% |
| Definitely vote for Ciattarelli | 25% | 1% | 12% | 63% |
| Total Ciattarelli | 37% | 2% | 23% | 86% |
| Not Sure | 16% | 9% | 41% | 8% |
| Vote for Someone Else | 3% | 2% | 6% | 1% |
| In this November’s gubernatorial election, do you think you will vote for the Democrat Mikie Sherrill, the Republican Jack Ciattarelli, someone else, or do you not plan to vote? | |||||
| All | Under 30 | 31-44 | 45-64 | 65+ | |
| Definitely vote for Sherrill | 35% | 35% | 35% | 32% | 40% |
| Probably vote for Sherrill | 10% | 11% | 13% | 10% | 6% |
| Total Sherrill | 45% | 46% | 48% | 41% | 46% |
| Probably vote for Ciattarelli | 11% | 10% | 9% | 13% | 9% |
| Definitely vote for Ciattarelli | 25% | 14% | 23% | 27% | 30% |
| Total Ciattarelli | 37% | 24% | 33% | 40% | 39% |
| Not Sure | 16% | 23% | 16% | 17% | 13% |
| Vote for Someone Else | 3% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| In this November’s gubernatorial election, do you think you will vote for the Democrat Mikie Sherrill, the Republican Jack Ciattarelli, someone else, or do you not plan to vote? | |||||
| Liberal | Moderate | Conservative | Progressive | MAGA | |
| Definitely vote for Sherrill | 71% | 41% | 11% | 61% | 2% |
| Probably vote for Sherrill | 12% | 13% | 4% | 7% | 2% |
| Total Sherrill | 83% | 54% | 15% | 68% | 3% |
| Probably vote for Ciattarelli | 2% | 10% | 16% | 4% | 16% |
| Definitely vote for Ciattarelli | 4% | 16% | 55% | 9% | 70% |
| Total Ciattarelli | 6% | 26% | 70% | 13% | 86% |
| Not Sure | 10% | 18% | 13% | 16% | 10% |
| Vote for Someone Else | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| In this November’s gubernatorial election, do you think you will vote for the Democrat Mikie Sherrill, the Republican Jack Ciattarelli, someone else, or do you not plan to vote? | ||||
| All | White | Black | Hispanic | |
| Definitely vote for Sherrill | 35% | 35% | 45% | 29% |
| Probably vote for Sherrill | 10% | 8% | 13% | 12% |
| Total Sherrill | 45% | 43% | 58% | 41% |
| Probably vote for Ciattarelli | 11% | 12% | 5% | 11% |
| Definitely vote for Ciattarelli | 25% | 29% | 15% | 16% |
| Total Ciattarelli | 37% | 41% | 20% | 27% |
| Not Sure | 16% | 15% | 19% | 24% |
| Vote for Someone Else | 3% | 2% | 3% | 7% |
| In this November’s gubernatorial election, do you think you will vote for the Democrat Mikie Sherrill, the Republican Jack Ciattarelli, someone else, or do you not plan to vote? | |||
| All | Approve of Trump | Disapprove of Trump | |
| Definitely vote for Sherrill | 35% | 2% | 62% |
| Probably vote for Sherrill | 10% | 2% | 15% |
| Total Sherrill | 45% | 4% | 77% |
| Probably vote for Ciattarelli | 11% | 21% | 3% |
| Definitely vote for Ciattarelli | 25% | 60% | 2% |
| Total Ciattarelli | 37% | 81% | 5% |
| Not Sure | 16% | 13% | 14% |
| Vote for Someone Else | 3% | 1% | 4% |
| Effect of Questions about New Jersey Issues on Second Statement of Vote Choice | ||||
| Overall | Dem | Indp | Rep | |
| Definitely vote for Sherrill | 0% | -1% | -2% | +1% |
| Probably vote for Sherrill | 0% | +1% | 0% | -1% |
| Total Sherrill | 0% | -1% | -2% | 0% |
| Probably vote for Ciattarelli | 0% | 0% | +4% | -2% |
| Definitely vote for Ciattarelli | +1% | -1% | +4% | +3% |
| Total Ciattarelli | +1% | -1% | +7% | +1% |
| Not Sure | -1% | 0% | -5% | -1% |
| Vote for Someone Else | +1% | +1% | 0% | 0% |
| Effect of Questions about National Issues on Second Statement of Vote Choice | ||||
| Overall | Dem | Indp | Rep | |
| Definitely vote for Sherrill | 0% | +1% | +1% | -1% |
| Probably vote for Sherrill | 0% | 0% | 0% | -1% |
| Total Sherrill | 0% | +1% | +1% | -1% |
| Probably vote for Ciattarelli | -2% | 0% | -5% | -3% |
| Definitely vote for Ciattarelli | +1% | 0% | 0% | +4% |
| Total Ciattarelli | -1% | 0% | -4% | 0% |
| Not Sure | 0% | -1% | +6% | 0% |
| Vote for Someone Else | 0% | +1% | -2% | +1% |
As the election draws closer, the strategies employed by both campaigns, particularly their ability to frame the narrative and mobilize key demographics, will undoubtedly shape the outcome of this closely watched gubernatorial contest. For deeper insights into New Jersey’s dynamic political landscape, continue to explore our political coverage at Explore New Jersey Politics.
