It’s been awhile since the race for governor seemed so wide open.
Come next year, there will be no incumbent in the race and no big-money or obvious candidates with their party’s nomination all but secured.
If that is not enough, the apparent disappearance of the county line for both parties this June makes it seem even more wide open.
It may seem odd to think of the long and hot days of June in freezing and dark December, but time moves quickly. And the primary is just a bit more than five months away.
Let’s start with the Republicans, who are still on a high after Donald Trump’s win nationally and his better than normal showing in New Jersey.
Their glee may be understandable, but let’s remember that every election is its own entity.
In looking at the Republican field, here are the questions to be answered before June.
Just how much name recognition does Jack Ciattarelli have and how much will it help him?
Ciattarelli, who came very close to beating Phil Murphy in 2021, has never stopped running.
Everyone in politics knows that, but many people – even primary voters – do not follow politics everyday. It may seem strange, but Ciattarelli may still be an unknown candidate to some.
Jon Bramnick is convinced the Trump cult is not a majority in New Jersey – even among Republicans. Is he right?
What we do know is that Bramnick is the guy for Republicans not enamored of Trump. And he certainly seems like the best general election candidate.
I have heard Bill Spadea say more than once that Republicans should be pro-gun, pro-life and pro-Trump. So you know the votes he is looking for.
Spadea also enjoys criticizing the state’s Republican establishment, which means Ciattarelli and Bramnick. As noted, the 2021 gubernatorial race was within four points, but Spadea gives Ciattarelli no credit for that, contending at times that the race was not close at all.
While Spadea long appeared to have ardent Trump voters to himself, enter Mike Crispi.
The co-chair of the state’s America First Republicans says he may run for governor, and if he does not, there may be another America First candidate.
It’s hard to tell if he’s serious. Some of Crispi’s statements are a bit out there – like simply ending the state income tax and making the Giants become the New Jersey Giants. That’s a state issue?
Of more substance, Crispi has been attacking George Gilmore, the Ocean County GOP Chair and a Spadea supporter, for not showing Trump the respect he merits. Trump had pardoned Gilmore after his conviction on tax-related charges.
So, will Crispi really get in the race? And how many votes will he, or another America First candidate, take from Spadea?
What about the Dems?
In looking at the field from afar, you first have to look at Steve Fulop, the mayor of Jersey City. Fulop announced quite early and his website shows detailed positions on education, transportation and other key issues.
Issues mean something, don’t they? Fulop obviously thinks they do.
Unfortunately, so many voters, it seems, make decisions based more on personality and gut feeling than actual proposals.
Any look at the Democratic race needs to focus on both Reps. Josh Gottheimer and Mikie Sherrill, who represent congressional districts 5 and 11 respectively.
Both have been elected – and reelected – more than once in districts that used to be represented by Republicans, which, presumably, says something positive about their electability.
At the same time, state government is very different from Congress And harder?
Such problems as school funding, Mt. Laurel housing and high property taxes (a function of home rule) have been around seemingly forever. If they were easy to fix, it would have happened already So, can Gottheimer and Sherrill convince voters they know enough about the ins and outs of New Jersey government to run it?
Talk about persuasion, we now come to the three other major Democratic candidates. Each of them, it seems, has a central challenge.
Can Sean Spiller convince voters he is more than a candidate representing the New Jersey Education Association?
Can Ras Baraka win votes – a sufficient number of votes – outside of Newark?
And can Steve Sweeney do well in a race for governor despite having lost his state Senate seat a few years ago to a relative unknown?
The good news about all this as 2025 dawns is that nothing seems pre-ordained – in either party.
So there’s good reason to watch.
(Visited 1,270 times, 143 visits today)
