Sherrill Opens Eight-Point Lead Over Ciattarelli in New Jersey Governor’s Race in latest Quinnipiac Poll

With just under two months until voters head to the polls, the race for governor in New Jersey is taking shape, and the latest numbers show Democrat Mikie Sherrill holding a clear advantage over Republican Jack Ciattarelli. A new Quinnipiac University survey of likely voters finds Sherrill leading Ciattarelli 49 percent to 41 percent, while third-party hopefuls Vic Kaplan of the Libertarian Party and Joanne Kuniansky of the Socialist Workers Party each register 1 percent support.

The poll highlights a modest but steady edge for Sherrill. Roughly six percent of voters remain undecided or withheld their choice, leaving some room for movement, but the trajectory appears to favor the Democrat.

Partisan loyalty is strong on both sides. Ninety-three percent of Democrats line up behind Sherrill, while 90 percent of Republicans back Ciattarelli. Among independents—a crucial swing bloc—Sherrill holds a 45 to 41 percent advantage. Gender divides are also pronounced: men narrowly lean toward Ciattarelli, 48 to 44 percent, while women favor Sherrill by a wide 55 to 35 percent margin.

When voters were asked to choose between just the two leading candidates, Sherrill’s support climbed slightly to 51 percent compared to Ciattarelli’s 42 percent.

Candidate Enthusiasm and Favorability
Both major candidates enjoy energized support, though intensity levels vary. Nearly nine in ten Ciattarelli backers say they are enthusiastic about their choice, with 48 percent calling themselves “very enthusiastic.” Sherrill’s supporters show a slightly softer but still strong commitment, with 85 percent expressing enthusiasm, though more describe themselves as “somewhat” enthusiastic.

Favorability ratings paint a more complicated picture. Sherrill is viewed positively by 40 percent of voters and negatively by 29 percent, with nearly one-third saying they don’t know enough about her. Ciattarelli also sits at 40 percent favorable, but his unfavorable numbers are higher at 39 percent, suggesting both campaigns still face challenges in defining themselves statewide.

Leadership, Integrity, and Connection to Voters
The poll also tested how voters perceive each candidate on personal qualities. Sherrill comes out ahead across three critical measures: honesty, leadership skills, and empathy. Half of likely voters believe Sherrill cares about the needs of people like them, compared to 44 percent for Ciattarelli. On leadership, Sherrill again leads 52 to 44 percent. When asked about honesty, Sherrill is seen as truthful by 49 percent of voters, while only 38 percent say the same about Ciattarelli.

These traits could prove pivotal in a state where voters often prioritize trust and competence as much as policy. As Quinnipiac analyst Tim Malloy noted, Ciattarelli currently trails Sherrill on all three of those qualities, leaving him with little margin for error as the campaign heads into its final stretch.

The Issues Driving the Race
Taxes once again dominate the conversation in New Jersey politics. Thirty percent of likely voters cite taxes as their most important issue in deciding who to support. Ethics in government follows with 14 percent, while health care, inflation, and immigration trail behind in single digits.

Party splits are stark. For Republicans, taxes are the top priority by far, followed by immigration and crime. Democrats are more divided, ranking ethics in government and health care near the top, while independents echo Republican concerns on taxes but lean closer to Democrats on ethics.

Property taxes, one of the state’s most persistent concerns, tilt slightly in Ciattarelli’s favor. Forty-six percent of likely voters believe he would handle the issue better, compared to 40 percent who trust Sherrill. On electricity costs, however, Sherrill edges out Ciattarelli 42 to 40 percent.

Statewide Satisfaction and National Backdrop
The poll underscores a split New Jersey electorate. Forty-nine percent say they are satisfied with the way things are going in the state, while an equal 49 percent say they are dissatisfied. That division reflects not only local issues but also the broader national political climate.

When asked about former President Donald Trump, New Jersey voters remain skeptical: 55 percent disapprove of his performance, compared to 41 percent who approve. Half of respondents said they want the next governor to stand up to Trump, while 47 percent prefer a governor who works with him.

Approval ratings for current state and federal leaders are similarly mixed. Governor Phil Murphy holds a 48 percent approval rating, while Senators Cory Booker and Andy Kim each receive 46 percent approval.

The Road Ahead
This survey, conducted between September 11 and 15 among 1,238 likely voters, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 points. With Sherrill holding a modest but consistent lead, Ciattarelli faces the challenge of shifting perceptions on honesty, leadership, and empathy—areas where voters give his opponent the upper hand.

As New Jerseyans weigh their choices, the path to victory will hinge on which candidate convinces voters they can best handle pocketbook issues like property taxes and rising costs. And with enthusiasm running high on both sides, the weeks ahead promise a hard-fought campaign that will keep the Garden State in the national spotlight.

1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Mikie Sherrill the Democrat, Jack Ciattarelli the Republican, Vic Kaplan the Libertarian Party candidate, and Joanne Kuniansky the Socialist Worker Party candidate, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)

–	LIKELY VOTERS
–	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom
Sherrill	49%	5%	93%	45%	44%	55%
Ciattarelli	41	90	3	41	48	35
Kaplan	1	1	–	3	2	–
Kuniansky	1	–	2	1	1	1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)	–	–	–	–	–	–
WLDN’T VOTE(VOL)	–	–	–	–	–	–
UNDECIDED(VOL)	4	2	1	8	4	5
REFUSED	2	3	1	2	1	3

–	MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE TO YOUR VOTE Q9.
–	Taxes	Inflation	Immigration	Health Care	Ethics In Govt
Sherrill	29%	58%	39%	80%	78%
Ciattarelli	65	20	57	7	17
Kaplan	1	2	3	–	2
Kuniansky	–	–	–	9	1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)	–	–	–	–	–
WLDN’T VOTE(VOL)	–	1	–	–	–
UNDECIDED(VOL)	3	9	2	2	1
REFUSED	1	10	–	2	2

1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Mikie Sherrill the Democrat, Jack Ciattarelli the Republican, Vic Kaplan the Libertarian Party candidate, and Joanne Kuniansky the Socialist Worker Party candidate, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)

–	LIKELY VOTERS
–	CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1
–		CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
–	Tot	Sherrill	Ciattarelli
Very enthusiastic	41%	37%	48%
Smwht enthusiastic	45	48	40
Not so enthusiastic	8	8	6
Not enthus at all	4	4	3
DK/NA	2	2	2

1b. (If candidate chosen q1) How likely is it that you will change your mind about your choice for governor before the election; very likely, somewhat likely, not so likely, or not likely at all?

–	LIKELY VOTERS
–	CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1
–		CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
–	Tot	Sherrill	Ciattarelli
Very likely	1%	1%	1%
Somewhat likely	10	9	8
Not so likely	16	18	15
Not likely at all	71	72	74
DK/NA	1	1	2

1c. If the only candidates were Mikie Sherrill the Democrat and Jack Ciattarelli the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS) (Results based on total sample, only asked of respondents who did not choose Sherrill or Ciattarelli q1. Respondents who named Sherrill or Ciattarelli in q1 assigned to initial preference.)

–	LIKELY VOTERS
–	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom
Sherrill	51%	5%	95%	46%	45%	56%
Ciattarelli	42	90	3	44	50	35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)	–	–	–	–	–	–
WLDN’T VOTE(VOL)	–	–	–	–	–	–
UNDECIDED(VOL)	5	2	1	9	4	6
REFUSED	2	3	1	2	1	3

–	MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE TO YOUR VOTE Q9.
–	Taxes	Inflation	Immigration	Health Care	Ethics In Govt
Sherrill	29%	58%	39%	89%	79%
Ciattarelli	66	22	60	7	17
SMONE ELSE(VOL)	–	–	–	–	–
WLDN’T VOTE(VOL)	–	1	–	–	–
UNDECIDED(VOL)	3	9	2	2	2
REFUSED	1	10	–	2	2

2. Is your opinion of Mikie Sherrill favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about her?

–	LIKELY VOTERS
–	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom
Favorable	40%	6%	74%	36%	34%	45%
Unfavorable	29	66	4	25	32	27
Hvn’t hrd enough	29	28	21	37	33	26
REFUSED	1	1	1	1	1	2

3. Is your opinion of Jack Ciattarelli favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him?

–	LIKELY VOTERS
–	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom
Favorable	40%	84%	5%	39%	44%	36%
Unfavorable	39	4	76	31	33	44
Hvn’t hrd enough	21	11	20	28	23	19
REFUSED	1	1	–	1	1	1

4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Phil Murphy is handling his job as governor?

–	LIKELY VOTERS
–	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom
Approve	48%	9%	84%	46%	43%	52%
Disapprove	44	83	9	47	49	39
DK/NA	8	8	7	7	8	8

5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Cory Booker is handling his job as United States Senator?

–	LIKELY VOTERS
–	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom
Approve	46%	6%	83%	42%	41%	51%
Disapprove	43	86	9	44	51	36
DK/NA	11	8	8	14	8	13

6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andy Kim is handling his job as United States Senator?

–	LIKELY VOTERS
–	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom
Approve	46%	20%	72%	44%	43%	49%
Disapprove	27	53	7	27	32	23
DK/NA	27	27	21	30	26	28

7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?

–	LIKELY VOTERS
–	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom
Approve	41%	90%	2%	40%	48%	34%
Disapprove	55	8	97	52	48	61
DK/NA	5	2	1	8	4	5

8. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

–	LIKELY VOTERS
–	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom
Very satisfied	8%	4%	14%	6%	4%	12%
Smwht satisfied	41	13	66	40	38	43
Smwht dissatisfied	22	28	12	27	28	17
Very dissatisfied	27	54	6	26	29	26
DK/NA	2	1	1	2	1	2

9. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding who to vote for in the election for governor: taxes, inflation, immigration, crime, unemployment, health care, schools, electricity costs, affordable housing, mass transit, or ethics in government?

–	LIKELY VOTERS
–	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom
Taxes	30%	40%	17%	37%	35%	25%
Inflation	9	7	12	8	6	12
Immigration	8	13	6	7	8	9
Crime	5	11	2	4	7	3
Unemployment	1	–	2	1	1	2
Health care	9	1	18	7	6	12
Schools	6	5	8	5	4	7
Electricity costs	4	6	3	3	4	4
Affordable housing	6	4	8	6	5	8
Mass transit	1	–	2	1	2	–
Ethics in government	14	7	20	15	16	13
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)	2	2	1	3	3	2
DK/NA	3	3	2	3	2	4

10. Would you say that Mikie Sherrill – cares about the needs and problems of people like you, or not?

–	LIKELY VOTERS
–	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom
Yes	50%	21%	82%	43%	44%	55%
No	35	66	9	36	39	31
DK/NA	15	13	9	21	17	14

11. Would you say that Jack Ciattarelli – cares about the needs and problems of people like you, or not?

–	LIKELY VOTERS
–	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom
Yes	44%	87%	8%	46%	47%	40%
No	43	8	78	37	38	47
DK/NA	13	5	14	17	14	12

12. Would you say that Mikie Sherrill – has good leadership skills, or not?

–	LIKELY VOTERS
–	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom
Yes	52%	23%	82%	48%	48%	55%
No	26	55	6	23	30	23
DK/NA	22	22	12	29	21	22

13. Would you say that Jack Ciattarelli – has good leadership skills, or not?

–	LIKELY VOTERS
–	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom
Yes	44%	81%	15%	46%	48%	41%
No	35	10	61	29	29	40
DK/NA	21	8	24	26	23	19

14. Would you say that Mikie Sherrill – is honest, or not?

–	LIKELY VOTERS
–	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom
Yes	49%	21%	78%	44%	44%	54%
No	24	47	6	23	30	19
DK/NA	27	32	16	32	26	27

15. Would you say that Jack Ciattarelli – is honest, or not?

–	LIKELY VOTERS
–	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom
Yes	38%	71%	13%	36%	42%	33%
No	37	12	62	34	33	40
DK/NA	26	18	26	30	25	27

16. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job handling – electricity costs in New Jersey: Mikie Sherill or Jack Ciattarelli?

–	LIKELY VOTERS
–	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom
Sherrill	42%	8%	79%	35%	37%	47%
Ciattarelli	40	77	7	44	44	37
DK/NA	17	15	14	20	19	16

17. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job handling – property taxes in New Jersey: Mikie Sherill or Jack Ciattarelli?

–	LIKELY VOTERS
–	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom
Sherrill	40%	7%	77%	30%	33%	46%
Ciattarelli	46	86	10	52	55	39
DK/NA	14	7	13	18	12	15

18. When it comes to issues affecting New Jersey, would you like to see the next governor mainly stand up to President Trump or would you like to see the next governor mainly work with President Trump?

–	LIKELY VOTERS
–	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom
Stand up to	50%	8%	91%	43%	42%	57%
Work with	47	91	6	53	53	42
DK/NA	3	2	2	4	5	1

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