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New Jersey residents are grappling with the potential consequences of President-elect Donald Trump’s mass deportation plan, which could have profound effects on the state’s economy, its undocumented population, and the legal rights of its citizens. Should Trump follow through with his promise to deport millions of undocumented immigrants, New Jersey could face a significant loss in tax revenue, disruption to families, and potentially the forfeiture of certain constitutional rights for both immigrants and citizens alike.

A Threat to Constitutional Rights?

The New Jersey Alliance for Immigrant Justice has warned that the state may not be able to shield immigrants from deportation under the proposed plan. One concern is the 100-mile “border zone” that includes the entire state of New Jersey, where certain constitutional protections can be suspended. Within this zone, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) would have the authority to conduct warrantless immigration checks on public transportation and vehicles. This could lead to an erosion of rights, as local authorities may be unable to prevent federal agencies from taking action.

Tom Homan, Trump’s pick for “border czar,” has been a staunch advocate for aggressive immigration enforcement. He has made it clear that federal law supersedes state and local law when it comes to immigration, adding that ICE would be able to carry out deportations regardless of local policies aimed at protecting undocumented residents. Homan’s comments only heighten concerns that New Jersey’s immigrant population could face increased scrutiny and detentions.

Disrupting Families and the Workforce

The potential for mass deportations has been met with strong opposition from undocumented residents and their advocates. Alejandro, a North Plainfield resident who came to the U.S. from Ecuador in 2019, expressed his concerns about the devastating impact deportations would have on families. “If they deport these people, they’re going to ruin these families,” Alejandro said, noting that many undocumented immigrants are vital contributors to the workforce and provide for their families both in the U.S. and abroad.

A report by the American Immigration Council highlighted the economic and social importance of immigrants to New Jersey. It found that undocumented residents make up about 5% of the state’s workforce, contributing approximately $3.4 billion in taxes. The state could lose a significant portion of this revenue if Trump’s mass deportation plan is enacted, not to mention the disruption of families, many of whom have U.S.-born children or undocumented spouses.

In New Jersey, more than 40,000 residents live with an undocumented immigrant spouse, and over 196,000 U.S. citizen children have at least one undocumented family member. With an estimated 470,000 undocumented immigrants residing in the state, the social and economic implications of mass deportation would be profound.

The Cost of Deportation

While many supporters of Trump’s immigration agenda may argue that deportations are necessary to enforce the rule of law, the logistics and costs of such a mass operation remain staggering. The American Immigration Council recently estimated that deporting just 1 million people annually could cost the U.S. government up to $88 billion per year. Extending this to the full 11 million undocumented immigrants that Trump has suggested targeting could result in a total cost of nearly $1 trillion over the next decade.

This massive financial burden would come at a time when many Americans are already concerned about the federal budget and the cost of other public programs. Critics argue that the money spent on deportations could be better allocated to improving education, healthcare, and infrastructure.

The Reality of Detention Centers

Before deportation, undocumented immigrants are likely to be held in detention centers, where conditions have drawn considerable criticism. In New Jersey, there are currently two such facilities—the Elizabeth Detention Center and the Albert M. “Bo” Robinson Center in Trenton. The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) has raised alarms over the potential expansion of these centers, as ICE plans to add approximately 600 additional beds to the Elizabeth Detention Center. The ACLU argues that the expansion would facilitate the mass detention of immigrants and that these facilities are often inhumane.

Eunice Cho, a senior staff attorney at the ACLU, criticized the Biden administration for paving the way for Trump’s mass deportation plan by allowing detention center expansions. The organization has called for the immediate closure of such facilities, citing concerns over the treatment of detainees.

Skepticism and Challenges to Mass Deportation

Despite Trump’s tough rhetoric, some of his supporters remain skeptical about the feasibility of a full-scale deportation plan. Carlos Rendo, the mayor of Woodcliff Lake and an immigration attorney, noted that during Trump’s first term, deportations largely targeted individuals with criminal backgrounds or prior deportation orders, rather than the general immigrant population. Rendo suggested that Trump may focus on legal immigration reform instead of pursuing an all-out deportation campaign.

The logistical challenges of deporting 11 million people, combined with the expense, could also undermine the effectiveness of the plan. The Migration Policy Institute reported that during Trump’s first term, 1.5 million deportations occurred, but this figure may still fall short of the full deportation agenda that some supporters hope for.

The Road Ahead

As New Jersey prepares for the potential fallout from Trump’s immigration policies, immigrant advocacy groups, such as Wind of the Spirit, are increasing their efforts to educate undocumented immigrants about their rights and to prepare for heightened interactions with ICE. The legal and financial consequences of a mass deportation policy are significant, and advocates will need to continue to fight for protections that could shield New Jersey’s immigrant communities from such a disruptive and costly plan.

Whether Trump will follow through on his deportation promises or adjust his approach remains to be seen. However, the conversation surrounding immigration policy in New Jersey is far from over, and both immigrants and their advocates are bracing for what may come.