As we move into the weekend, New Jersey is bracing for a dynamic weather pattern. A broad ridge of high pressure will dominate the region, bringing us hot and humid conditions, but things will change as we head into Sunday afternoon and Monday. If you’re planning your weekend activities or just keeping an eye on the skies, here’s your essential guide to the forecast—and a sneak peek into the potential impacts of Hurricane Erin.
Friday to Sunday: Hot and Humid Conditions
The weather this weekend will be defined by warm temperatures and elevated humidity levels. From Friday through Sunday, we’ll experience highs ranging from 85°F to 90°F, with dew points in the 65°F to 72°F range. While not unbearable, the air will definitely feel sticky—perfect weather for outdoor activities that involve water, like poolside relaxation, boating, or a trip to the beach.
Friday (Aug 15)
- Highs: Mid-to-upper 80s across most of New Jersey, with temperatures closer to lower 80s along the coast.
- Conditions: Expect a mix of sunny skies and clouds, with light easterly winds keeping things calm. It will still feel humid but manageable.
- Overnight: Temps will cool down to around 70°F statewide, perfect for a warm summer evening.
Saturday (Aug 16)
- Highs: Similar conditions, with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s for most of NJ and near-80 along the coast.
- Conditions: A mostly sunny day with light E/SE winds. If you’ve been waiting for the best day to get outside, Saturday is your golden opportunity for outdoor summer fun.
- Overnight: Temperatures will dip to the mid-to-upper 60s statewide, with 70°F closer to the coast.
Sunday (Aug 17)
- Highs: Sunday will be the hottest day of the weekend, with temperatures reaching the low-to-mid 90s in most of New Jersey, and mid-80s along the coast.
- Conditions: Expect more sun than clouds in the morning, but clouds will increase as the day progresses. Thunderstorms are likely to develop in the afternoon and could linger into the evening, particularly as we get into Sunday night.
- Overnight: Lows will range from 65°F to 70°F across New Jersey.
Sunday Night Storms: A Cool Down On the Horizon
The heat and humidity will peak on Sunday afternoon, but by the time the cold front moves through on Sunday evening into early Monday morning, we’ll see significant changes. The stormfront will bring thunderstorms followed by a cooler, drier air mass for the start of next week.
Be sure to get inside before the storms approach on Sunday evening, as these could bring heavy rain and gusty winds. Afterward, conditions will significantly improve, with cooler air settling in as Erin’s circulation pulls in air from the north. By Monday morning, temperatures should be much more comfortable—ideal for those who are looking for a respite from the heat.
Erin’s Potential Impact on the East Coast
Now, let’s talk about Hurricane Erin, which is currently developing over the Atlantic Ocean. Erin is expected to track northeast, passing far enough offshore to spare the Caribbean islands from direct impacts. While the northern Lesser Antilles might experience some outer rain bands and surf impacts, they are unlikely to face a direct hit from the storm.
As Erin moves farther out into the Atlantic, it is expected to intensify into a major hurricane over the Bermuda Triangle. The forecast suggests a weakness in the atmosphere between the Southeast US and Bermuda, allowing Erin to shift offshore, away from the US East Coast, between Wednesday evening and Friday morning.
While there are a few outliers that suggest Erin could scrape parts of the Outer Banks (OBX) with fringe rain bands or strong winds, the most likely scenario has the storm staying far offshore, leaving New Jersey with minimal direct impacts. However, we can expect heavy surf, rip currents, and potentially red flag warnings for beachgoers next week.
Next Week’s Forecast: Cooler and Drier
Once Erin moves out to sea, New Jersey will find itself on the west side of Erin’s circulation, which will usher in cooler and drier air from the north. The forecast for Monday, Aug 18 to Friday, Aug 22 calls for mid-70s to near-80°F temperatures and lower humidity, offering a much-needed relief from the heat and humidity of the weekend.
This shift will bring comfortable weather, especially for those who enjoy outdoor activities in more pleasant conditions. The lower humidity means that the air will feel much more refreshing, with clearer skies and light winds.
Key Takeaways for the Weekend and Beyond
- Friday to Sunday will be hot and humid, with high temperatures in the 85-90°F range. Perfect for water activities, but be cautious of increasing storm activity on Sunday afternoon/evening.
- Sunday night will see thunderstorms, followed by cooler, drier air moving in for the start of the workweek.
- Hurricane Erin is expected to stay offshore, but will bring heavy surf and rip currents, along with red flag warnings for beaches.
- By Monday, Aug 18, we can look forward to a more comfortable, cooler, and drier atmosphere, thanks to Erin’s influence on the broader weather pattern.
For ongoing updates about the weather in New Jersey, including real-time forecasts and changes in storm activity, be sure to check out our Weather Report section.
