New Jersey residents may soon get their first taste of winter as a colder-than-usual pattern settles over the state this coming week. After a period of mild late-fall weather, forecasters are signaling the arrival of a seasonally anomalous trough that will bring a marked drop in temperatures and the potential for the first snow flurries in the northwest. While the timing and intensity of any snow remain uncertain, meteorologists are closely watching the evolving pattern.
The weekend begins with a period of rain Friday night into Saturday morning, which is expected to taper off by late Saturday morning. This will allow for a dry Saturday afternoon and evening, giving residents a brief reprieve before the colder air moves in. Sunday is likely to feature rain associated with an advancing cold front, possibly starting by mid- to late-morning and lasting into the evening. Models are indicating the possibility of a secondary low developing late Sunday night into Monday morning, which could enhance precipitation and create conditions favorable for snow in certain higher-elevation areas.
Climatology and current ocean temperatures suggest that snow at lower elevations of New Jersey remains unlikely. However, residents in northwest New Jersey — particularly in Sussex County near the High Point Monument — may see the first flakes of the season as rain transitions to snow with the arrival of the anomalous cold. No concentrated snowstorm is expected, and any flurries are likely to be light, with little to no accumulation.
The cold air mass arriving next week is unusually strong for this time of year, with highs on Monday through Wednesday potentially staying in the 30s in interior regions and overnight lows dipping into the 20s across much of the state. Coastal areas will see milder conditions, with highs in the mid-40s and lows in the 30s. These temperatures are 10-15 degrees below average for early November, underscoring the anomalous nature of the incoming pattern.
Meteorologists point to the upper-level dynamics as the driving force behind the cold snap. An upper-level trough is expected to push into the eastern United States, with an upper low forming somewhere between Ohio and Tennessee. At the 500mb pressure level — roughly 17,200 feet above the surface — the low pressure will deepen, enhancing upward motion and precipitation potential. The combination of cold air and this upper-level disturbance creates conditions favorable for rain to transition to snow, particularly over higher elevations in northwest New Jersey.
Monday through Wednesday will feature persistent chilly conditions statewide, with widespread cold rain and the possibility of flurries overnight, especially in interior and elevated areas. While significant accumulation is unlikely, these first flakes serve as a reminder that winter is approaching, and residents in the northwest should be prepared for colder temperatures and slick surfaces during overnight and early morning hours.
As winds have already shifted and clear skies dominate much of the state today, Saturday will offer a last glimpse of milder late-fall weather before the colder pattern takes hold. Sunday afternoon and evening will see the return of rain, signaling the onset of a cold stretch that will extend into midweek. Northwest New Jersey remains the region most likely to see the season’s first snowflakes, with lower-elevation and coastal areas primarily experiencing cold rain.
For ongoing updates on New Jersey weather conditions, forecasts, and potential winter alerts, visit Explore New Jersey’s Weather Report section.
This week serves as a reminder that the Garden State can experience early winter surprises, particularly in higher elevations, as anomalous cold air moves in and the first signs of winter begin to emerge. Residents should prepare for chilly temperatures, wet conditions, and the possibility of flurries in the northwest while enjoying a dry and mild Saturday before the colder air settles in.
