As campaign signs start sprouting faster than spring weeds and political headlines swirl with everything from scandal whispers to internal party drama, the 2025 New Jersey governor’s race is officially shifting into high gear. And if the latest StimSight Research poll is any indication, the early momentum belongs to Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill, who is establishing herself as the frontrunner in the Democratic primary.
But this isn’t just about polling numbers — it’s about what those numbers say about where New Jersey’s Democratic voters are placing their trust, and what issues are truly driving the race.
Sherrill Leads, But the Field is Crowded
According to the StimSight poll of 409 likely Democratic primary voters, Sherrill holds a clear lead with 31%, comfortably ahead of Newark Mayor Ras Baraka (21%) and Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop (19%). The rest of the field remains in single digits, including Congressman Josh Gottheimer (10%), Sean Spiller (9%), and Steve Sweeney (9%).
That means Sherrill leads the next-closest candidate by 10 points — a margin outside the poll’s ±4.9% error rate. While that doesn’t make her the nominee just yet, it does signal she’s gained a significant foothold in the minds of Democratic voters across the state.
More coverage of the campaign trail is available in our New Jersey politics section.
What Issues Are Shaping the Race?
The StimSight poll doesn’t just measure preferences — it dives into the motivations behind the votes, and the data tells a very clear story. Here are the top priorities Democratic voters identified:
- Fighting Trump and his allies: 46%
- Protecting Social Security and Medicare: 44%
- Beating the Republican in November: 41%
- Making New Jersey more affordable: 37%
These aren’t minor concerns. These are kitchen table issues — broad, emotional, and motivating. They point to a base that wants a candidate who can not only take a punch but throw one back. And on these issues, Sherrill stands out as the most credible to voters.
In fact, when asked who’s best positioned to win in November, 57% said Sherrill, compared to just 37% for Fulop and 20% or less for the rest of the field.
Trust and Favorability: The Sherrill Advantage
In politics, likability and trustworthiness are intangible but powerful factors — and Sherrill is dominating both.
- 44% of voters view her as trustworthy, compared to 27% for Baraka and 26% for Fulop.
- She has a 52% favorable rating among Democratic primary voters, with just 15% unfavorable.
- However, 33% still say they haven’t formed a strong opinion of her — a number that could represent either an opportunity or a vulnerability.
What’s clear is that Sherrill isn’t just polling well — she’s resonating on a personal level, especially among voters who care about electability, healthcare, and economic justice.
Voter Fluidity: It’s Still Early
One thing political veterans know: a lead in May does not guarantee a win in June or July. Only about 60% of voters in the poll say they’re “locked in” — meaning there’s still a sizable chunk of the electorate up for grabs.
Sherrill’s strategy from here will likely focus on consolidating her support with key constituencies like:
- Women
- Voters under 50
- Voters of color
These groups represent not just the diversity of New Jersey, but also the heart of the Democratic coalition. Mobilizing them could be the key to turning her early lead into an unshakable advantage.
What About the GOP and the Ciattarelli Circus?
While Democrats hash out their primary, the Republican side of the race has taken a dramatic turn of its own. General Michael Flynn’s son has publicly suggested that Donald Trump took a bribe to endorse Jack Ciattarelli, igniting controversy and accusations of corruption on the right.
In other words — the Republican primary is rapidly becoming its own episode of political theater. And that’s exactly the type of dysfunction Democratic voters are desperate to avoid in their own party.
Whether there’s any truth to the Trump-Ciattarelli bribe rumor or not, it adds another layer of unpredictability to what’s shaping up to be a high-stakes, high-drama general election. You can stay up to date with these developments in our New Jersey politics section.
The Road Ahead
With debates, endorsements, and more polls yet to come, the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial primary is far from over. But the path to victory is becoming clearer — and Mikie Sherrill is currently leading the way.
She has the message, the momentum, and the moderate profile many Democrats see as essential in a general election. But she also has challengers with deep local ties and significant political machines behind them. It’s a wide field, and anything can happen.
Keep it locked here at Explore New Jersey for the latest updates, in-depth breakdowns, and the kind of local political coverage you won’t find anywhere else.
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