As the summer heats up across New Jersey, so does the political landscape. With the 2025 gubernatorial election on the horizon, the race to succeed the term-limited incumbent governor is already generating significant buzz. Recent polling suggests that the contest between Republican Jack Ciattarelli and Democrat Mikie Sherrill is shaping up to be a closely watched, single-digit battle. At Explore New Jersey, we’re committed to providing our readers with insightful, balanced perspectives on the political developments that shape our state. For a deeper dive into New Jersey’s political scene, including election coverage, policy discussions, and how legislative decisions impact our communities, be sure to visit our dedicated section: https://explorenewjersey.org/politics/.
A recent survey, conducted by Cygnal, indicates that U.S. Representative Mikie Sherrill currently holds a 7-point lead over former State Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, with Sherrill at 50% and Ciattarelli at 43%. While it’s still early in the election cycle, these numbers set the stage for what promises to be a compelling and fiercely contested campaign.
The Contenders: Seasoned Experience and Political Pedigree
Both Jack Ciattarelli and Mikie Sherrill bring significant experience and distinct political backgrounds to the race.
Jack Ciattarelli, a certified public accountant and businessman, has a long history in New Jersey politics. He previously served in the New Jersey General Assembly, representing the 16th legislative district, and was the Republican nominee for governor in the 2021 election. In that race, he mounted a strong challenge, coming within a narrow margin of victory against the then-incumbent. Ciattarelli’s campaign often emphasizes fiscal responsibility, property tax reform, and a focus on making New Jersey more affordable for its residents. Having secured the Republican nomination for a second consecutive time in the recent primary, he is clearly a well-known and experienced figure in state-wide contests.
Mikie Sherrill, currently serving as the U.S. Representative for New Jersey’s 11th congressional district, also boasts an impressive resume. A former Naval Academy graduate, Navy helicopter pilot, and federal prosecutor, Sherrill has quickly risen through the political ranks since her election to Congress in 2018. Her political platform typically focuses on issues such as healthcare access, environmental protection, and supporting New Jersey’s working families. Having won the Democratic nomination in a competitive primary this June, she now looks to translate her strong congressional support into a successful gubernatorial bid.
The Significance of Early Polling
While a 7-point lead might seem substantial, in the world of political campaigns, it’s considered a “single-digit race,” indicating a contest that could swing either way as the election draws closer. Early polls like this serve as snapshots, offering an initial look at public sentiment before the full force of campaign advertising, debates, and grassroots efforts takes hold.
The Cygnal poll’s findings will undoubtedly fuel both campaigns. For the Sherrill campaign, it provides an early momentum boost and a target to defend. For the Ciattarelli campaign, it signals the need to intensify their outreach, refine their message, and mobilize their base to close the gap.
Key Issues on the Horizon
As the campaign unfolds, several key issues are expected to dominate the discourse in New Jersey:
- Affordability and Taxes: New Jersey residents consistently rank property taxes and the overall cost of living as top concerns. Both candidates will likely present their plans for addressing these persistent challenges, from tax relief proposals to strategies for fostering economic growth that benefits all New Jerseyans.
- Economic Development: How to attract and retain businesses, create jobs, and ensure a robust state economy will be central to the debate. This includes discussions on infrastructure, workforce development, and innovation.
- Education: Funding for schools, quality of education, and potential curriculum reforms are always critical topics in state-level elections, and this race will be no different.
- Healthcare: Access to affordable healthcare, the state’s role in public health, and managing rising medical costs will also be prominent issues.
- The State’s Direction: Beyond specific policies, the election will ultimately be a referendum on the overall direction of New Jersey and the vision each candidate offers for its future.
The upcoming 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial election will feature a contest between Republican former state assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli and Democratic Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill. Both candidates have won their respective party primaries and are now facing off in the general election, aiming to succeed term-limited Democratic Governor Phil Murphy.
The Candidates:
- Jack Ciattarelli (Republican): A former state assemblyman, this is Ciattarelli’s third bid for the governorship. In 2021, he came within a narrow margin of defeating the incumbent Governor Phil Murphy. He is considered the Republican party establishment’s preferred candidate and received an endorsement from former President Donald Trump in May. The Republican Governors Association praised Ciattarelli’s understanding of providing “much needed relief” to New Jersey families.
- Mikie Sherrill (Democrat): A four-term Congresswoman, Sherrill previously served as a federal prosecutor and Navy helicopter pilot. She has presented herself as a consensus candidate within the Democratic party, leading in polls and securing numerous county organization endorsements. If elected, she would be the first female Democrat to serve as New Jersey’s governor.
Key Issues and Campaign Messaging:
- Differing Visions: The candidates hold different stances on various issues, including taxes, housing, and voting.
- Affordability and Economic Concerns: Ciattarelli has criticized the current administration’s policies, claiming they have led to “skyrocketing costs” and left families struggling. His campaign emphasizes a need for change.
- Transgender Issues: A recent poll suggests that Ciattarelli could gain support by campaigning against transgender rights, particularly regarding participation in sports and discussions in schools. Sherrill has a record of supporting transgender rights.
- Association with National Figures: Sherrill has linked Ciattarelli to Donald Trump, while Ciattarelli has attempted to portray Sherrill as a continuation of Governor Murphy’s administration.
Polls and Election Outlook:
- Early Polling: Initial polls suggest a competitive race. A SurveyUSA poll showed Sherrill with a 13-point lead among likely voters in late May, while an internal Ciattarelli campaign poll showed a closer race with Sherrill having a narrow lead. A more recent poll, however, suggests the race becomes a dead heat when voters are informed of Sherrill’s stance on transgender issues.
- Historical Context: While the electorate favors Democrats in New Jersey, it has been decades since the party won the governorship for three consecutive terms. Additionally, in recent history, the party opposite the one holding the White House often wins the New Jersey governorship.
Important Notes:
- The Democratic primary was the first partisan election without party-line ballots, which may have impacted the outcome.
- Sherrill’s campaign is focused on increasing her statewide name recognition.
- Ciattarelli won the Republican primary with a significant margin, securing nearly 68% of the vote.
The general election is scheduled for November 4, 2025.
The battle for New Jersey’s governorship is a high-stakes affair, and the early polling signals that voters can expect a dynamic and hard-fought campaign. As both Jack Ciattarelli and Mikie Sherrill prepare to fully engage in the coming months, New Jersey residents will have ample opportunity to assess their platforms, track their strategies, and ultimately decide who will lead the Garden State into its next chapter. Stay informed on every twist and turn of this pivotal election by regularly visiting our politics section at https://explorenewjersey.org/politics/.
