New Jersey residents are about to experience a dramatic shift in the weather this week. The warm, summer-like air that started the week is quickly being replaced by a much more noticeable autumn chill, thanks to a strong cold front sweeping across the Mid-Atlantic. This weather pattern, characterized by a major transition in the jet stream high above, signals a quick end to the mild conditions and the return of true fall weather.
The Warm-Up and the Rain Shield
Through Monday, high-pressure systems—one situated near Bermuda over the Atlantic and another tracking from the Great Lakes—are dictating our current weather. The ocean-based high is responsible for drawing in warm, moisture-laden air, which is why we’ve felt that muggy heat. On Monday afternoon, high temperatures peaked, soaring into the 80s across many inland areas, while the immediate coast remained a little cooler in the 70s. Skies were mostly clear, and light south/southwest winds kept the evening comfortable as lows settled into the upper 50s to low 60s overnight.
This pattern is set to break on Tuesday, October 7th. Expect highs to stay in the upper 70s to low 80s inland, and mid to upper 70s near the coast. The humidity will be evident, but conditions will quickly deteriorate. Clouds will steadily increase throughout the afternoon, and our much-needed rain will begin to spread across the state from the west. Rainfall, which is expected to total between a half-inch and one inch across New Jersey, will persist into Wednesday morning. While the primary event will be steady rain, isolated thunderstorms can’t be entirely ruled out. Overnight on Tuesday, the rain will continue with lows holding in the 60 to 65-degree range.
The Arctic Invasion Arrives
The true drama unfolds on Wednesday, October 8th. This day will be defined by a stark transition. The morning commute will likely be wet as the overnight rain continues, but the clearing will begin by mid-to-late morning as the cold front finally pushes through. High temperatures should struggle to reach 70 degrees for most of the state. With the passage of the front, winds will dramatically shift from the south/southwest to a brisk west/northwest flow. This wind shift marks the arrival of significantly colder and drier air. New Jersey will feel a complete change between day and night.
By Wednesday night, the fall chill will be undeniable. Lows are projected to drop sharply, plunging into the 40s for much of the state. The higher elevations of North Jersey could even see temperatures drop into the upper 30s! Only the southeastern coastal regions, which are the last to feel the full effects of the front, will likely remain closer to 50 degrees.
Crisp Autumn Days and Frost Potential
The rest of the week will embrace a classic, crisp autumn feel, reminiscent of what we enjoyed last week.
On Thursday, October 9th, expect highs to be confined to the 60 to 65-degree range across New Jersey. Skies will be mostly sunny, the air will be noticeably drier, and the winds will be light from the north/northeast. The main concern will be Thursday night, as lows drop from the mid-30s in North Jersey’s higher elevations to the 50s along the Southern Coast. Many inland and Northwest Jersey areas will be under a threat of frost.
Friday, October 10th, will mirror Thursday with highs again in the 60 to 65-degree range and a mix of sun and clouds. The wind will shift to a light easterly flow. Lows will settle into the 40s and 50s inland, with coastal regions staying in the 50 to 60-degree range.
Looking Ahead to the Weekend
The forecast for the weekend of October 11th-12th presents a forecasting challenge. We anticipate high temperatures staying in the low to mid-60s with lows from 45 to 55 degrees. This cooler outlook, a contrast to last weekend’s warmth, is due to easterly winds being drawn in from the cooler ocean waters by a developing coastal low. The critical question remains: just how far north this coastal storm will track. Current modeling suggests a strong high-pressure ridge will attempt to suppress the low pressure system to the south, potentially sparing New Jersey entirely. However, the exact track is still TBD (to be determined), and its proximity could deliver rain and strong winds to the state—an important detail for anyone planning outdoor fall events. We’ll be closely monitoring its progress.
On a separate note, there are currently no tropical threats to New Jersey, with a distant tropical system (Invest 95L) expected to stay safely out to sea after passing the Lesser Antilles. For continuous updates on this evolving weather situation, please check our weather report page.
For a look back at the beginning of the month, check out Welcome to OCTOBER! | Wednesday, 10/1/2025 NJ Weather Forecast.
Welcome to OCTOBER! | Wednesday, 10/1/2025 NJ Weather Forecast – YouTube
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